* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 41 48 51 59 73 78 72 71 63 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 41 48 51 59 73 78 72 71 63 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 32 33 34 36 41 50 55 54 52 48 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 23 17 14 10 13 12 13 11 10 13 16 16 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 2 2 4 0 4 -1 -1 -3 -4 -7 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 275 267 278 287 284 264 283 283 299 264 301 268 287 318 315 323 347 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 148 146 146 145 144 142 143 141 142 137 128 124 126 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 52 51 50 48 47 46 53 64 67 65 61 57 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 10 9 10 12 12 15 23 26 22 22 16 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -23 -28 -31 -42 -31 -25 -31 -53 -61 -67 -80 -105 -112 -136 -158 200 MB DIV 22 40 23 19 3 -5 30 2 11 0 39 18 7 -27 -19 -44 -18 700-850 TADV 19 18 12 11 13 6 7 2 0 9 -3 15 7 3 1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1204 1142 1109 1093 1100 1116 1144 1171 1239 1368 1575 1603 1504 1484 1536 1634 1729 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.2 25.1 25.9 26.4 27.2 28.4 30.2 32.2 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.0 52.7 53.3 53.8 54.5 55.1 55.4 55.5 55.2 54.5 52.8 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 8 7 5 4 3 6 7 12 11 7 3 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 39 37 32 25 23 22 23 18 11 10 4 3 4 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -0. -0. 3. 14. 17. 11. 9. 0. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 21. 29. 43. 48. 42. 41. 33. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 51.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 34 36 41 48 51 59 73 78 72 71 63 56 59 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 32 34 39 46 49 57 71 76 70 69 61 54 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 30 35 42 45 53 67 72 66 65 57 50 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 29 36 39 47 61 66 60 59 51 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT