* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 49 61 76 86 92 92 93 96 99 99 100 98 97 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 49 61 76 86 92 92 93 96 99 99 100 98 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 57 72 86 94 96 98 102 106 107 102 97 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 11 11 16 11 11 12 14 14 11 11 6 3 0 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 2 2 5 7 0 SHEAR DIR 117 107 75 62 66 64 75 35 30 50 54 59 54 110 113 177 77 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.6 28.2 27.8 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 171 170 170 161 157 156 148 141 148 144 132 130 123 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 73 73 71 66 65 65 63 62 61 56 53 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 8 13 15 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 2 18 3 0 4 1 17 20 21 19 39 65 63 79 86 103 101 200 MB DIV 42 26 32 36 39 28 64 -8 16 -4 -18 -18 -16 -16 -6 -27 -13 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -1 1 -5 3 -7 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 255 312 341 386 426 503 605 761 938 1059 1262 1484 1714 1974 2214 2381 2111 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 100.0 101.2 102.4 103.5 105.9 108.1 110.3 112.8 115.3 118.2 121.1 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 44 47 48 35 22 29 25 11 8 12 9 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 34. 38. 42. 46. 48. 50. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 9. 14. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 19. 31. 46. 56. 62. 62. 63. 66. 69. 69. 70. 68. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.43 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 42.0% 28.9% 18.8% 0.0% 26.5% 36.6% 51.5% Logistic: 6.3% 27.1% 12.0% 5.1% 4.0% 9.5% 34.9% 41.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 41.8% 14.7% 5.2% 3.2% 11.2% 9.7% 4.4% Consensus: 7.2% 37.0% 18.5% 9.7% 2.4% 15.7% 27.0% 32.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 30.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##