* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 48 51 59 70 74 66 53 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 48 51 59 70 74 66 53 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 40 41 42 43 45 50 58 59 53 45 41 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 21 16 9 14 10 14 11 14 8 15 13 19 15 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 3 3 2 5 0 0 -3 -4 -7 -6 -8 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 278 282 294 250 282 268 290 291 274 262 276 312 348 352 10 348 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 148 146 145 145 144 143 144 143 145 133 126 127 128 129 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 53 53 50 48 45 47 57 64 66 66 62 57 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 14 21 21 16 8 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -21 -20 -32 -33 -42 -23 -21 -65 -52 -56 -76 -91 -113 -133 -140 -141 200 MB DIV 31 27 25 0 9 11 15 2 15 33 32 18 -22 -34 -12 -10 -44 700-850 TADV 20 17 11 13 3 9 0 1 2 6 3 18 2 -1 -9 -15 -7 LAND (KM) 1148 1105 1077 1073 1077 1094 1127 1156 1223 1391 1686 1553 1493 1567 1714 1767 1555 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.2 28.8 31.1 32.7 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.5 53.2 53.7 54.1 54.7 55.1 55.5 55.8 55.5 54.0 51.8 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 4 6 11 13 10 6 6 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 36 39 36 33 27 24 23 24 15 12 6 3 4 4 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. 3. 12. 12. 3. -9. -18. -19. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 16. 24. 35. 39. 31. 18. 10. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 51.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 8.0% 5.3% 4.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% 1.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 45 48 51 59 70 74 66 53 45 45 46 49 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 42 45 48 56 67 71 63 50 42 42 43 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 40 43 51 62 66 58 45 37 37 38 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 35 43 54 58 50 37 29 29 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT