* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 29 31 30 27 27 30 35 42 39 33 37 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 29 31 30 27 27 30 35 42 39 33 37 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 26 32 41 51 54 51 46 30 2 10 12 9 7 17 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 8 12 5 6 8 9 12 8 1 0 -3 -1 5 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 178 200 201 199 200 225 237 262 289 309 284 131 124 151 329 311 293 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.4 27.5 21.1 16.0 19.7 18.2 19.3 21.5 23.0 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 142 148 137 90 76 84 80 81 86 93 90 90 91 93 96 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -53.4 -53.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 47 46 52 55 53 49 47 42 41 42 47 49 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 12 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 8 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -3 -5 3 -10 -31 -75 -97 -133 -159 -165 -126 -58 -39 -29 -52 200 MB DIV 13 8 37 60 39 59 0 -27 -84 -40 -54 14 7 35 6 -4 -26 700-850 TADV -13 -24 -10 4 9 44 23 16 27 -4 -12 -8 -5 -3 -4 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 270 455 603 623 590 430 458 1051 1491 1193 1060 1284 1548 1722 1826 1890 1913 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.5 36.5 37.8 39.2 42.8 46.2 48.1 48.0 45.5 42.3 40.5 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 70.7 67.9 64.7 61.4 54.5 46.9 38.6 30.2 23.8 22.2 24.4 27.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 27 29 30 32 31 29 27 22 13 13 10 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 34 31 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. 6. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 12. 12. 13. 15. 19. 20. 19. 17. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -9. -17. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 5. 2. 2. 5. 10. 17. 14. 8. 12. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.7 73.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 29 31 30 27 27 30 35 42 39 33 37 42 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 27 29 28 25 25 28 33 40 37 31 35 40 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 22 24 23 20 20 23 28 35 32 26 30 35 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT