* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 63 76 86 91 93 93 100 100 102 100 99 96 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 63 76 86 91 93 93 100 100 102 100 99 96 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 58 72 85 94 98 102 110 112 108 106 99 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 8 10 14 7 9 8 8 9 8 6 1 1 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 3 6 6 2 SHEAR DIR 105 39 52 68 61 70 67 43 18 35 59 58 75 354 217 145 94 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.2 29.2 28.4 27.6 28.4 28.3 27.2 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 170 169 166 157 158 149 142 150 149 137 137 127 126 122 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 71 70 65 64 63 61 61 61 58 58 53 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 10 12 15 17 18 18 22 22 23 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 17 5 2 1 5 2 2 7 14 19 52 64 70 76 73 85 77 200 MB DIV 16 14 18 25 20 26 37 11 6 -17 -13 -5 1 -21 -5 -23 -24 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -5 0 LAND (KM) 317 351 386 429 464 576 707 917 1033 1233 1475 1712 1956 2186 2393 2203 1903 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.2 102.4 103.6 104.8 107.2 109.6 112.1 114.6 117.4 120.4 123.3 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 47 48 42 28 22 33 14 8 15 14 4 3 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 22. 19. 19. 17. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 33. 46. 56. 61. 63. 63. 70. 70. 72. 70. 69. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 99.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.1% 24.6% 18.4% 0.0% 25.4% 32.3% 50.0% Logistic: 7.8% 35.5% 18.0% 9.2% 7.0% 14.8% 33.2% 36.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 18.6% 2.4% 0.7% 2.2% 9.7% 8.2% 2.4% Consensus: 7.2% 30.1% 15.0% 9.4% 3.0% 16.6% 24.5% 29.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 13.0% 28.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##