* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 46 49 58 68 72 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 46 49 58 68 72 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 38 38 39 41 47 52 46 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 16 11 16 12 13 3 12 29 56 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 3 7 3 5 1 11 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 284 290 264 257 268 268 291 226 206 211 212 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.0 27.1 17.3 19.0 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 146 148 148 145 147 145 128 131 78 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 51 50 48 51 60 67 61 47 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 9 11 11 15 22 21 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -19 -28 -35 -48 -40 -58 10 28 38 -6 -46 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 18 15 6 -4 17 17 62 31 107 48 20 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 10 12 4 5 7 9 9 36 35 29 -33 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1095 1078 1070 1065 1072 1163 1318 1541 1256 765 448 901 1529 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 9 10 13 16 23 29 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 39 37 34 28 24 21 11 3 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 14. 13. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 5. 13. 12. 3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 23. 33. 37. 31. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 52.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 7.1% 4.9% 4.7% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 2.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 41 46 49 58 68 72 66 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 44 47 56 66 70 64 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 40 43 52 62 66 60 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 33 36 45 55 59 53 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT