* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 28 30 34 47 59 71 78 83 86 88 89 90 89 89 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 28 30 34 47 59 71 78 83 86 88 89 90 89 89 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 46 56 65 74 84 92 97 100 100 98 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 8 13 10 9 10 9 10 13 11 9 5 3 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 -3 -1 0 4 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 60 68 86 86 73 88 53 34 50 65 91 73 92 49 141 67 92 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.3 29.4 28.7 27.8 27.9 28.7 28.2 27.2 27.6 26.6 26.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 170 170 169 158 160 153 144 145 153 148 137 141 131 130 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 70 68 64 65 63 63 63 62 62 59 57 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 7 7 7 11 11 14 15 17 19 20 20 21 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 1 8 3 12 12 16 18 37 67 78 79 72 86 85 83 200 MB DIV 18 14 21 21 31 35 20 24 14 0 15 -10 27 3 14 -12 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -4 -5 4 -4 -2 0 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -8 1 LAND (KM) 335 375 426 466 526 651 848 1023 1188 1417 1682 1912 2143 2326 2449 2161 1873 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.6 13.0 12.5 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.6 103.8 105.1 106.3 108.7 111.1 113.7 116.4 119.2 122.1 124.8 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 47 40 33 20 37 22 8 11 20 11 3 5 2 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 24. 32. 37. 42. 47. 51. 54. 55. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 19. 18. 15. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 5. 9. 22. 34. 46. 53. 58. 61. 63. 64. 65. 64. 64. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 101.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.1% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 9.5% 3.7% 1.4% 0.9% 4.5% 3.0% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.5% 7.1% 0.5% 0.3% 8.4% 6.9% 2.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% 7.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##