* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 46 56 62 63 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 46 56 62 63 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 42 45 41 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 18 20 15 17 9 24 42 45 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 4 7 3 -1 6 6 7 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 291 279 271 279 283 291 229 223 215 210 224 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.0 20.2 17.3 19.4 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 142 143 141 143 136 129 85 77 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 49 47 48 53 64 69 57 51 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 17 20 20 22 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -31 -50 -55 -51 -39 6 32 10 -32 -64 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 17 -5 7 24 0 38 85 89 90 52 33 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 4 4 8 1 11 9 42 40 -3 -51 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 1025 1010 1037 1075 1207 1396 1395 1002 541 575 998 1494 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 14 21 26 27 25 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 33 36 29 25 21 14 8 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 9. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 8. 12. 11. 13. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 21. 27. 28. 33. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 53.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.5% 7.9% 7.1% 4.3% 8.2% 7.3% 9.1% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 2.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 46 56 62 63 68 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 41 45 55 61 62 67 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 37 41 51 57 58 63 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 30 34 44 50 51 56 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT