* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 32 26 20 18 21 22 22 23 24 30 33 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 32 26 20 18 21 22 22 23 24 30 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 29 37 37 38 36 34 18 2 14 10 7 7 11 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 6 3 8 7 7 5 7 1 0 2 0 1 1 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 197 186 189 206 218 232 254 281 309 308 115 131 147 325 292 302 275 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.9 27.5 25.1 18.9 20.0 19.7 20.0 21.1 22.6 23.0 22.8 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 141 137 113 83 85 83 82 83 89 91 88 88 91 95 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -54.0 -54.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 49 53 58 56 52 53 45 43 44 44 39 34 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 15 12 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -1 -2 -12 -26 -61 -76 -113 -138 -161 -177 -108 -40 -41 -38 -40 200 MB DIV 30 73 51 55 47 6 -22 -80 -23 -31 11 11 18 -7 -11 -36 -33 700-850 TADV 3 18 8 33 28 31 14 20 12 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 4 LAND (KM) 675 707 692 658 589 490 1027 1596 1259 1071 1195 1419 1549 1498 1367 1256 1218 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.8 38.1 39.7 41.4 44.8 46.8 47.0 45.2 42.7 41.0 40.6 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.6 64.7 61.5 58.3 54.9 47.3 39.1 31.0 24.7 22.4 23.5 26.1 27.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 29 30 32 32 29 26 20 11 10 9 4 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 21 27 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 23 CX,CY: 22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -16. -18. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -12. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.9 67.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 36 32 26 20 18 21 22 22 23 24 30 33 34 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 29 23 17 15 18 19 19 20 21 27 30 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT