* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 47 60 73 81 87 92 96 100 98 97 95 91 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 47 60 73 81 87 92 96 100 98 97 95 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 46 55 63 71 82 92 98 97 93 90 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 12 12 5 10 9 6 8 10 9 4 4 6 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 4 8 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 60 77 64 71 69 53 28 26 24 57 47 53 71 167 175 105 96 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.2 27.3 27.5 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 166 165 160 157 157 154 150 152 148 139 141 131 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 68 64 64 64 64 63 64 63 65 59 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 7 9 11 13 16 16 18 20 22 24 22 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 7 2 0 9 10 15 19 44 65 72 72 80 93 99 92 200 MB DIV 10 12 15 27 11 19 9 34 19 7 17 -8 -5 2 -2 -18 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 -6 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 -1 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 395 451 490 541 606 761 987 1117 1323 1584 1838 2080 2313 2471 2215 1977 1718 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.7 12.5 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.9 105.2 106.4 107.6 110.0 112.6 115.3 118.1 121.1 124.0 127.0 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 53 54 40 31 23 23 29 14 13 17 13 4 5 2 9 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 38. 43. 47. 51. 53. 54. 55. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 18. 17. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 22. 35. 48. 56. 62. 67. 71. 75. 73. 72. 70. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 102.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.7% 5.7% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 7.2% 7.2% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 10.0% 16.0% 53.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##