* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 33 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 20 18 23 19 10 14 13 15 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 4 6 1 0 2 -3 1 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 277 278 283 291 295 317 284 257 290 271 275 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 26.9 26.8 21.3 18.9 18.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 142 144 144 145 143 128 128 89 81 79 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 48 49 50 60 75 71 67 63 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -42 -42 -42 -63 -11 9 19 -26 -37 -103 -107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -14 -2 26 9 2 82 57 95 51 68 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 5 1 1 2 -2 16 28 27 64 72 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1004 986 979 1017 1067 1236 1530 1219 725 558 911 1406 1247 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 19 26 27 26 25 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 37 33 29 28 22 11 2 10 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 53.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.2% 8.4% 7.4% 4.8% 8.2% 7.3% 10.5% Logistic: 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 3.1% 2.7% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 35 34 34 35 35 36 38 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 32 31 31 32 32 33 35 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 26 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT