* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 44 37 26 20 17 21 31 42 36 22 23 31 32 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 44 37 26 20 17 21 31 42 36 22 23 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 45 44 40 31 24 20 17 17 19 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 36 43 46 44 44 39 28 4 13 18 8 5 1 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 8 -1 6 6 7 9 3 5 1 0 1 -1 3 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 194 193 206 221 230 251 276 297 334 122 139 141 216 15 57 75 317 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 26.5 22.9 20.2 19.6 19.4 19.6 20.8 22.9 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 125 98 87 85 83 82 83 91 94 96 98 101 103 102 100 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 45 50 54 56 55 49 47 43 41 40 43 45 49 49 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 20 18 16 12 10 9 10 15 21 18 7 4 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 -3 -9 -9 -41 -54 -86 -120 -127 -129 -135 -125 -120 -95 -78 -84 200 MB DIV 65 47 21 22 46 2 -50 -46 -15 -32 -5 1 4 -2 7 14 -2 700-850 TADV 5 5 12 20 15 23 12 2 -2 1 13 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 665 637 614 494 361 818 1485 1325 1036 1085 1255 1491 1729 1904 1887 1832 1792 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.8 40.3 42.2 44.0 46.7 47.4 45.7 43.0 40.9 39.8 39.0 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 61.2 57.8 54.3 50.4 41.9 32.9 25.6 22.0 22.1 24.0 26.7 29.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 28 29 31 33 34 32 29 23 14 9 10 11 9 6 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 28 CX,CY: 24/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -13. -14. -15. -13. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -8. -12. -15. -16. -10. -1. -6. -23. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 4. -3. -14. -20. -23. -19. -9. 2. -4. -18. -17. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 37.5 64.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 46 44 37 26 20 17 21 31 42 36 22 23 31 32 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 40 33 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 35 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT