* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 44 53 65 74 80 82 87 89 92 90 90 87 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 44 53 65 74 80 82 87 89 92 90 90 87 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 39 42 50 59 67 73 81 87 93 97 95 89 81 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 10 6 6 9 10 9 6 7 4 4 12 10 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -6 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 3 4 4 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 91 76 76 90 119 41 38 52 60 61 51 123 215 190 200 186 168 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.3 27.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 168 160 159 158 154 151 150 149 139 139 131 135 138 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 63 60 60 58 60 61 60 61 58 55 55 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 12 11 13 12 14 14 15 15 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 7 0 5 5 10 11 34 61 66 69 63 77 96 105 103 200 MB DIV 13 14 20 8 9 11 22 -3 -8 -15 -31 10 30 8 -24 -22 -30 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -6 0 2 -3 0 -1 1 0 -4 -3 0 1 -5 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 405 424 477 548 645 885 1053 1255 1491 1738 2002 2241 2456 2215 1907 1606 1360 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 44 36 23 23 30 15 13 14 15 4 4 1 9 14 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 49. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 9. 8. 11. 9. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 23. 35. 44. 50. 52. 57. 59. 62. 60. 60. 57. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 103.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.5% 19.1% 16.6% 0.0% 23.3% 20.2% 20.7% Logistic: 3.1% 16.7% 7.4% 2.9% 2.7% 7.0% 13.5% 19.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 16.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.6% 1.9% 0.3% Consensus: 5.0% 18.6% 9.3% 6.6% 1.0% 10.6% 11.9% 13.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##