* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 35 35 38 40 39 40 39 39 38 39 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 35 35 38 40 39 40 39 39 38 39 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 30 32 34 36 37 37 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 21 18 21 25 17 14 5 16 18 16 18 19 18 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 7 5 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 277 279 284 297 294 307 327 301 192 188 205 235 285 321 339 354 312 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 143 145 148 145 145 145 140 131 126 123 124 124 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 49 46 50 51 60 61 61 61 61 58 59 56 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -37 -29 -29 -35 -26 -27 -17 -32 -57 -70 -85 -91 -83 -69 -69 -63 200 MB DIV -8 -1 13 5 -5 10 43 39 48 30 21 -2 -30 -3 -19 -2 -46 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 3 2 0 -2 5 5 24 12 7 4 4 -2 5 -9 LAND (KM) 991 971 958 949 935 916 950 1066 1335 1608 1492 1448 1519 1635 1756 1921 2136 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.9 29.2 31.5 33.2 33.8 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 54.9 55.5 56.0 56.5 57.5 58.2 58.4 57.5 55.3 52.7 50.2 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 10 14 15 12 10 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 32 33 38 38 26 19 20 11 6 3 2 3 3 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 54.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 10.0% 6.9% 6.3% 3.3% 7.0% 6.3% 9.8% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.3% 1.1% 2.5% 2.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 35 35 35 38 40 39 40 39 39 38 39 45 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 34 34 34 37 39 38 39 38 38 37 38 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 31 31 31 34 36 35 36 35 35 34 35 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 27 29 28 29 28 28 27 28 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT