* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 08/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 38 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 38 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 36 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 48 50 50 50 51 42 22 6 22 20 8 8 7 10 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 -1 5 7 6 6 12 3 0 1 2 0 -1 3 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 195 209 222 230 239 264 290 309 124 134 145 139 22 43 11 9 332 SST (C) 27.5 25.3 21.2 19.0 16.7 18.7 18.6 19.8 21.7 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.9 23.8 23.9 23.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 114 91 83 78 82 81 82 86 94 95 95 95 94 94 95 86 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -53.8 -54.8 -54.3 -53.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -53.2 -53.7 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 45 49 54 56 57 51 44 45 40 41 44 49 53 57 54 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 13 10 9 8 9 12 15 16 13 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 -2 0 -17 -53 -70 -106 -120 -139 -125 -117 -92 -74 -74 -51 -87 200 MB DIV 58 16 31 34 16 -35 -70 -28 -11 -3 7 2 -1 17 -5 33 19 700-850 TADV 4 5 22 11 21 13 9 -6 -8 7 9 1 -1 -5 -2 -3 10 LAND (KM) 600 565 438 314 520 1164 1394 1062 960 1135 1393 1651 1813 1862 1790 1741 1707 LAT (DEG N) 39.2 40.8 42.7 44.6 46.1 47.9 47.4 44.5 41.6 40.0 39.5 39.5 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.2 57.8 54.2 50.3 46.1 37.1 28.3 22.3 20.8 22.6 25.6 28.6 30.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 29 32 33 34 33 31 28 21 12 11 12 10 6 4 4 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 27 CX,CY: 23/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -13. -14. -15. -13. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 24. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -16. -13. -10. -10. -15. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -20. -25. -27. -22. -15. -9. -9. -12. -8. -4. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.2 61.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 08/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 63.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 08/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 08/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 38 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 36 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 33 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT