* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052023 08/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 49 58 70 78 85 90 93 96 95 97 93 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 49 58 70 78 85 90 93 96 95 97 93 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 53 62 71 80 90 97 99 99 97 94 91 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 5 1 9 9 9 6 5 9 6 4 5 9 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -7 -2 0 -2 0 -2 2 1 1 4 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 73 72 88 123 101 13 25 45 48 54 62 115 152 135 114 125 137 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.6 27.0 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 164 163 160 157 154 150 150 147 139 137 132 130 134 135 130 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 64 62 62 64 64 66 67 67 69 64 66 65 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 15 17 19 20 21 20 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 -1 6 2 8 12 14 44 62 78 78 72 87 83 77 68 200 MB DIV 16 28 20 21 4 -14 9 -8 32 9 30 16 27 -11 -29 -26 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 3 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 367 405 446 540 651 872 1020 1212 1444 1689 1955 2196 2409 2321 2124 1883 1600 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.3 13.0 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.0 107.3 108.6 109.9 112.7 115.1 117.6 120.3 123.2 126.2 129.1 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 14 14 15 14 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 33 29 27 22 15 13 14 11 4 3 2 5 8 9 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 44. 46. 47. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 13. 15. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 28. 40. 48. 55. 60. 63. 66. 65. 67. 63. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 104.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 FIVE 08/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 11.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 36.0% 25.6% 18.6% 0.0% 24.1% 24.6% 35.6% Logistic: 4.9% 33.7% 18.4% 10.3% 9.6% 19.6% 22.3% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% Consensus: 6.0% 26.6% 15.0% 9.7% 3.4% 15.2% 16.0% 19.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 29.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% 23.0% 43.0% 85.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 FIVE 08/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##