* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 32 34 35 37 37 37 37 39 47 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 32 34 35 37 37 37 37 39 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 23 22 22 22 23 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 20 21 27 23 12 4 6 11 7 5 3 11 27 33 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 6 2 5 2 0 0 -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 -6 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 271 279 291 286 293 313 314 354 177 245 317 198 266 300 331 341 5 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.0 26.0 26.4 25.3 24.3 23.6 21.4 19.5 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 141 141 141 142 140 127 116 119 108 101 97 86 80 72 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -56.2 -56.8 -56.8 -57.0 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 48 49 50 63 67 68 61 57 49 45 43 47 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -37 -45 -42 -43 -57 -9 -1 -13 -9 10 20 18 2 -31 -16 27 200 MB DIV -3 13 33 0 -6 48 38 76 43 53 8 8 -2 -28 -7 13 8 700-850 TADV 8 4 1 -2 6 2 5 3 21 7 5 3 7 2 15 23 58 LAND (KM) 1061 1081 1097 1102 1112 1189 1361 1558 1305 1075 970 958 1025 1162 1354 1539 1294 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.3 27.4 29.1 32.0 34.9 37.3 39.1 40.6 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.4 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.3 56.9 56.7 55.2 52.4 49.7 47.1 44.6 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 12 18 18 15 13 12 13 14 15 18 22 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 23 25 23 21 16 10 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.3 54.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 5.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.9% 4.8% 4.5% 9.5% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 32 34 35 37 37 37 37 39 47 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 32 34 35 37 37 37 37 39 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 25 26 29 31 32 34 34 34 34 36 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 20 23 25 26 28 28 28 28 30 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT