* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 08/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 32 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 49 52 52 53 51 33 5 18 27 11 3 12 6 10 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 10 7 8 11 7 5 -1 -2 2 -1 -1 -1 1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 209 223 230 240 252 281 300 335 122 140 141 37 53 13 327 344 357 SST (C) 24.5 20.5 17.9 16.7 18.2 19.1 19.2 20.9 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.4 22.3 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 88 80 78 81 82 81 84 93 95 95 96 94 95 92 88 82 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -53.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 50 49 44 46 43 39 42 48 53 58 57 53 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 14 26 22 16 13 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 1 -31 -50 -63 -95 -126 -143 -146 -110 -115 -109 -74 -81 -106 -98 200 MB DIV 18 23 33 10 0 -57 -61 -8 -15 -10 15 -2 7 27 -9 -22 -25 700-850 TADV 7 30 18 10 21 10 7 -11 3 12 3 1 -2 6 2 7 12 LAND (KM) 531 380 307 540 845 1513 1262 973 1084 1316 1590 1790 1831 1775 1738 1612 1444 LAT (DEG N) 41.3 43.2 45.0 46.4 47.5 48.0 45.9 42.7 40.4 39.6 39.6 40.0 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 53.8 49.9 45.7 41.4 32.4 24.8 21.2 22.0 24.7 27.9 30.4 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 32 33 33 32 31 29 25 15 11 12 12 8 5 5 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 31 CX,CY: 25/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 24. 25. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -4. 12. 6. -3. -9. -6. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -23. -25. -13. 8. 6. -4. -8. -0. 4. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 41.3 57.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 08/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 69.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 08/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 08/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 36 34 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 34 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 26 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT