* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 61 70 76 79 80 83 82 81 82 81 80 79 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 61 70 76 79 80 83 82 81 82 81 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 44 48 56 64 70 77 85 90 92 89 87 85 81 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 2 5 8 11 13 10 8 5 5 7 6 11 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -2 1 0 -2 -3 -3 0 2 5 7 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 78 96 129 155 11 17 47 57 89 62 79 191 185 136 113 96 49 SST (C) 30.3 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 163 163 160 159 156 150 149 144 140 135 131 131 132 136 132 133 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 60 60 59 57 60 59 60 62 59 58 56 56 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 19 19 19 19 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 6 1 4 10 13 36 61 72 69 61 72 85 97 96 89 200 MB DIV 24 9 6 1 9 13 0 -1 3 -8 0 -9 -15 -38 -17 -5 -7 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 1 1 -1 -2 2 -3 -7 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 418 479 569 690 803 939 1150 1398 1642 1901 2143 2378 2272 2031 1848 1586 1280 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.1 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.7 109.1 110.5 111.8 114.5 117.2 120.0 122.9 125.8 128.7 131.6 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 43 30 30 28 26 17 13 14 9 6 3 1 6 6 14 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 35. 41. 44. 45. 48. 47. 46. 47. 46. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 106.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 36.5% 28.8% 20.2% 13.6% 25.3% 26.5% 24.0% Logistic: 8.4% 37.6% 21.4% 12.8% 9.7% 15.6% 2.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 27.5% 17.0% 11.1% 8.0% 13.7% 9.7% 9.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 34.0% 21.0% 14.0% 10.0% 23.0% 32.0% 81.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##