* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 34 33 35 36 39 41 45 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 34 33 35 36 39 41 45 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 26 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 24 30 27 17 12 6 12 16 19 32 31 23 18 27 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 1 3 0 0 -4 -7 -6 2 0 2 1 3 11 8 SHEAR DIR 271 273 276 290 301 326 326 253 263 269 223 223 235 292 292 271 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.6 26.4 26.1 25.3 22.7 19.9 18.2 16.9 15.8 15.9 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 143 144 145 139 134 121 117 110 92 81 76 74 74 76 78 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.6 -56.4 -54.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 50 52 60 70 69 65 56 49 44 45 48 52 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -49 -56 -64 -55 0 13 3 11 13 -12 -57 -81 -75 -18 -48 -41 200 MB DIV 28 45 15 12 15 55 66 70 34 39 24 16 5 -8 11 -11 0 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 7 13 2 16 10 7 8 23 27 31 39 32 16 20 LAND (KM) 1139 1195 1223 1261 1318 1525 1438 1134 884 782 828 991 1264 1482 1046 488 161 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.5 30.5 33.4 36.5 39.4 42.0 44.5 46.7 48.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.2 56.4 56.1 54.4 51.6 48.6 45.7 42.8 39.6 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 7 8 13 19 19 18 16 16 16 16 17 23 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 24 21 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.7 54.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 6.6% 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 5.4% 5.3% 10.5% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 2.0% 2.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 34 33 35 36 39 41 45 50 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 34 33 35 36 39 41 45 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 32 33 36 38 42 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 21 22 24 25 24 26 27 30 32 36 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT