* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 33 33 34 36 38 43 45 49 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 33 33 34 36 38 43 45 49 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 26 28 28 28 28 29 30 32 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 31 25 21 13 6 11 13 20 30 39 37 29 29 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 4 3 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 1 -1 -6 0 4 8 13 SHEAR DIR 279 279 291 306 312 298 282 260 251 246 225 236 234 249 269 275 281 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 26.8 27.1 23.3 21.7 18.4 17.7 16.3 15.4 15.8 17.1 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 145 143 138 126 129 96 88 77 75 73 73 75 78 74 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.0 -54.4 -52.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 52 56 69 70 68 62 55 50 53 60 69 66 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -64 -60 -36 -8 15 14 14 3 -25 -74 -78 -76 -55 -55 -5 -3 200 MB DIV 37 24 28 41 72 46 81 63 54 54 38 5 -23 -4 0 9 10 700-850 TADV 8 5 8 10 13 22 14 34 8 23 26 25 3 -7 6 30 69 LAND (KM) 1155 1208 1245 1319 1413 1475 1179 866 683 711 935 1227 1483 1054 553 168 21 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.6 28.2 29.0 29.9 32.6 36.0 39.1 42.1 45.0 47.5 49.3 50.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.2 56.9 57.3 57.4 57.3 55.9 53.5 50.4 47.3 44.1 40.2 36.2 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 7 8 11 18 20 19 19 19 17 16 17 22 27 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 21 16 9 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 857 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 19. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.7 56.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 10.7% 7.2% 5.0% 0.0% 7.7% 7.8% 10.9% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 33 33 34 36 38 43 45 49 55 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 33 32 32 33 35 37 42 44 48 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 28 30 29 29 30 32 34 39 41 45 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 24 23 23 24 26 28 33 35 39 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT