* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 41 45 45 43 44 45 44 54 65 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 41 45 45 43 44 45 44 54 65 65 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 28 28 31 33 34 33 32 32 33 37 42 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 24 19 17 12 16 19 25 28 35 36 31 26 34 48 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 4 1 -3 0 -1 -2 1 -4 -5 -2 0 2 10 11 SHEAR DIR 287 294 302 312 299 275 226 239 244 210 226 242 251 253 264 277 281 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.8 26.6 24.7 21.0 19.3 17.3 15.7 16.9 16.6 17.2 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 146 144 137 126 123 106 86 79 74 72 76 77 79 74 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -56.2 -56.0 -55.2 -53.6 -52.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 52 56 62 70 72 67 57 49 47 54 60 62 58 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 8 10 13 13 12 12 11 9 13 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -57 -24 2 16 13 13 13 5 -26 -70 -60 -67 -64 -32 -4 -2 200 MB DIV 13 34 40 62 53 74 66 47 36 34 30 -13 -51 -17 -10 11 -14 700-850 TADV 5 7 11 10 18 9 26 32 17 -6 -13 -6 6 -2 -11 13 24 LAND (KM) 1153 1185 1248 1348 1483 1399 1104 820 716 843 1104 1402 1310 884 408 78 -240 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.6 30.7 33.4 36.7 39.8 42.8 45.7 47.9 49.3 50.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 58.2 58.4 58.2 57.6 55.6 52.7 49.3 45.8 41.9 37.9 33.8 28.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 11 13 19 20 20 20 19 16 15 18 23 28 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 20 16 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 825 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 19. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. -0. -5. 0. 8. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 15. 13. 14. 15. 14. 24. 35. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.3 57.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 12.1% 8.3% 7.2% 4.6% 8.5% 8.6% 9.7% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/02/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 33 37 41 45 45 43 44 45 44 54 65 65 38 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 36 40 44 44 42 43 44 43 53 64 64 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 37 41 41 39 40 41 40 50 61 61 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 34 34 32 33 34 33 43 54 54 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT