* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 86 91 96 95 95 91 89 85 88 88 87 85 84 81 V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 86 91 96 95 95 91 89 85 88 88 87 85 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 81 87 93 101 102 101 98 97 97 97 96 92 88 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 7 10 14 14 10 13 4 3 4 6 5 3 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 1 0 -3 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 2 2 5 2 3 5 1 SHEAR DIR 153 94 78 41 60 71 86 87 83 139 309 308 73 97 56 334 2 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 27.0 27.5 26.6 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 158 157 156 152 136 141 132 135 132 134 136 137 132 135 135 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 58 58 56 55 57 55 57 58 62 61 57 48 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 13 15 15 16 15 18 18 19 17 20 19 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 10 16 19 30 57 69 78 73 63 69 79 84 73 49 20 200 MB DIV 3 -11 -15 -1 -13 -34 -61 -55 25 11 -4 -10 -6 -16 3 -3 -17 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 1 -2 0 1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 708 783 840 932 1036 1298 1554 1824 2094 2362 2224 1932 1691 1399 1115 895 787 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.3 113.7 115.1 116.4 119.4 122.6 125.5 128.6 131.8 135.0 138.1 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 15 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 18 18 18 3 12 1 2 8 7 16 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 7. 8. 5. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 26. 31. 30. 30. 26. 24. 20. 23. 23. 22. 20. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 13.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 14.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 11.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 5.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.2% 70.5% 68.3% 67.3% 56.2% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.8% 43.1% 34.2% 24.4% 24.0% 4.5% 0.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 3.3% 14.3% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.1% 42.6% 34.6% 30.8% 27.4% 15.0% 0.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 60.0% 69.0% 60.0% 47.0% 29.0% 55.0% 31.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##