* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 92 95 96 96 93 91 87 86 84 83 83 82 84 85 84 V (KT) LAND 80 87 92 95 96 96 93 91 87 86 84 83 83 82 84 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 80 89 96 100 103 105 100 95 89 87 87 87 85 83 84 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 9 14 18 19 18 11 3 8 4 3 4 2 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -5 -4 0 1 1 4 1 1 6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 76 58 55 63 66 75 95 88 117 203 250 295 102 50 68 21 275 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.4 26.6 27.3 26.9 26.8 27.3 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 157 156 150 140 132 139 135 134 139 134 138 140 135 134 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 60 57 57 57 57 57 58 61 62 61 57 52 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 17 16 17 16 16 17 17 16 14 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 17 18 19 45 64 73 83 66 68 70 83 81 66 37 18 200 MB DIV -12 -18 9 -4 -16 -26 -29 0 27 9 -1 -12 -31 -35 -30 -39 -43 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 1 0 -1 0 1 -2 -7 -2 -1 -1 2 4 LAND (KM) 805 861 935 1036 1147 1394 1654 1950 2208 2445 2149 1863 1597 1349 1127 929 736 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.4 13.9 13.5 13.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.2 114.6 116.0 117.4 120.4 123.4 126.7 129.8 132.9 136.0 139.0 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 17 17 17 14 7 1 5 3 8 20 5 6 7 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -4. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 6. 6. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 16. 16. 13. 11. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.37 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.9% 31.2% 30.2% 30.1% 21.5% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.7% 15.7% 11.9% 7.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.9% 16.7% 14.1% 12.6% 9.1% 7.3% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 55.0% 62.0% 63.0% 41.0% 28.0% 23.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##