* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 40 41 42 43 45 47 49 50 55 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 40 41 42 43 45 47 49 50 55 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 33 34 34 34 34 35 36 37 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 14 12 10 10 13 11 11 21 32 39 36 38 46 58 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 2 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 -4 -3 2 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 304 321 316 310 298 208 226 264 222 227 240 272 275 279 259 250 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.0 27.3 25.9 24.3 21.4 18.4 17.4 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.4 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 146 137 133 128 131 115 102 87 77 75 73 74 75 76 80 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -56.5 -56.8 -56.2 -55.0 -53.4 -51.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 50 55 60 63 66 67 64 57 52 48 51 57 60 53 43 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 8 22 19 25 8 8 11 -6 -44 -61 -56 -45 -50 -49 -42 -28 200 MB DIV 42 64 56 43 63 66 62 27 31 37 15 8 6 4 14 8 -15 700-850 TADV 8 4 7 22 8 14 6 0 0 9 23 26 9 -9 -24 -36 -9 LAND (KM) 1220 1296 1413 1518 1424 1190 933 834 862 988 1220 1541 1173 747 374 164 -77 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.3 30.3 31.4 32.8 35.9 38.6 40.9 43.1 45.4 47.6 49.2 49.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 58.8 58.4 57.6 56.6 53.5 49.8 46.4 43.3 40.1 36.4 31.9 26.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 18 20 19 16 16 17 17 17 18 22 22 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 20 12 7 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.5 58.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.9% 6.6% 5.7% 2.9% 8.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 40 41 42 43 45 47 49 50 55 40 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 34 36 39 40 41 42 44 46 48 49 54 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 39 41 43 45 46 51 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 29 30 31 32 34 36 38 39 44 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT