* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 102 101 94 92 90 87 87 87 86 87 88 87 87 85 V (KT) LAND 90 97 101 102 101 94 92 90 87 87 87 86 87 88 87 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 90 98 103 105 105 103 100 94 89 87 87 85 85 87 88 86 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 14 15 20 17 13 8 3 3 1 3 5 2 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -5 -3 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 3 4 6 1 1 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 50 37 63 58 71 80 95 106 173 210 243 335 101 59 255 333 291 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 26.6 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 150 150 148 147 132 136 134 134 134 134 135 134 133 134 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 55 58 57 58 59 61 62 66 62 58 51 50 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 14 18 17 17 17 19 17 16 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 20 24 33 50 79 91 83 71 75 91 97 80 55 35 22 200 MB DIV -13 12 -7 -25 -37 -18 20 44 50 21 9 5 -15 -24 -34 -25 -52 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 0 -2 0 1 0 -4 -3 -2 -2 1 7 LAND (KM) 882 951 1033 1157 1289 1559 1807 2109 2363 2262 1941 1636 1357 1100 892 752 719 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.5 14.2 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.8 116.1 117.6 119.1 122.2 125.2 128.7 131.6 134.7 138.0 141.2 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 15 14 15 10 15 1 3 7 7 6 3 4 3 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -7. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 11. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.7 113.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.23 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 564.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.28 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.4% 27.3% 23.4% 21.5% 14.9% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.4% 14.7% 12.9% 8.6% 11.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.1% 14.7% 12.1% 10.1% 8.8% 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 51.0% 68.0% 67.0% 39.0% 33.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##