* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 08/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 38 42 49 55 55 52 52 51 50 57 65 74 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 38 42 49 55 55 52 52 51 50 47 42 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 36 33 32 31 32 32 31 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 15 16 18 28 29 31 42 44 44 41 45 25 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 -3 0 0 -1 1 -3 -5 -2 5 6 10 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 319 281 246 230 230 236 241 213 234 240 247 263 273 300 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 23.1 22.1 19.2 16.8 15.7 15.6 15.3 13.2 13.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 134 130 128 126 96 91 80 75 74 76 76 74 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -54.7 -52.5 -50.4 -48.5 -47.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 62 66 68 69 65 55 48 43 52 60 69 62 52 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 8 10 14 15 14 13 11 10 8 11 15 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 11 17 13 5 -6 -27 -59 -58 -36 -31 -6 14 68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 55 59 70 97 61 77 39 63 16 3 31 19 14 -80 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 30 10 25 33 9 24 -29 -26 -30 -17 33 29 53 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1389 1505 1407 1301 1172 870 661 730 988 1357 1226 611 -3 14 1 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.3 32.6 34.1 35.8 38.9 42.0 44.9 47.5 49.4 50.6 51.1 51.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 58.2 57.4 56.4 55.0 51.5 47.9 43.9 39.5 34.4 27.8 19.0 8.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 19 21 21 20 20 20 20 25 31 33 33 34 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 9 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 13. 16. 21. 25. 26. 24. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. 2. 6. 10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 12. 19. 25. 25. 22. 22. 21. 20. 27. 35. 44. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.1 58.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.3% 8.2% 6.8% 4.1% 7.8% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.4% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 08/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 08/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 38 42 49 55 55 52 52 51 50 47 42 42 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 36 40 47 53 53 50 50 49 48 45 40 40 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 42 48 48 45 45 44 43 40 35 35 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 37 37 34 34 33 32 29 24 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT