* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 93 92 87 87 87 87 86 87 88 88 88 88 88 88 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 93 92 87 87 87 87 86 87 88 88 88 88 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 95 96 96 96 93 89 87 85 84 84 86 88 90 90 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 15 16 18 15 12 5 1 4 6 6 3 4 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 4 5 2 -2 2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 27 59 57 64 70 94 90 139 206 280 12 74 44 43 327 290 298 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.1 26.9 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 150 150 152 147 135 138 134 136 138 132 134 135 135 137 139 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 57 57 56 59 59 60 61 61 58 52 46 48 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 17 17 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 28 39 50 70 80 86 74 82 78 99 94 85 59 46 35 200 MB DIV 0 0 -11 -9 2 -7 30 60 19 9 -11 26 -19 -33 -28 -16 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 -6 -4 0 3 10 LAND (KM) 970 1076 1192 1317 1440 1692 1973 2246 2404 2085 1756 1453 1193 978 834 802 954 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.4 117.8 119.3 120.7 123.8 126.9 130.2 133.3 136.6 140.0 143.3 146.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 17 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 15 14 12 2 4 4 8 20 2 4 3 3 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10. -7. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.22 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 574.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 18.6% 17.4% 15.7% 11.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 3.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 7.4% 6.5% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 28.0% 64.0% 50.0% 18.0% 19.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##