* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 113 109 105 97 91 90 86 90 90 90 89 89 87 87 88 V (KT) LAND 110 113 113 109 105 97 91 90 86 90 90 90 89 89 87 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 114 113 110 104 95 89 86 86 88 89 91 93 90 86 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 15 17 17 13 7 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 0 1 4 7 0 0 3 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 54 60 64 62 80 96 108 159 217 168 62 339 50 203 237 279 287 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.9 26.5 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 152 147 145 131 135 133 135 134 136 137 134 134 136 137 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 56 57 59 59 63 62 67 63 60 53 53 54 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 15 17 17 17 19 17 19 18 18 17 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 39 52 59 75 89 84 74 83 87 89 89 66 52 40 25 200 MB DIV 3 -17 -15 6 0 19 61 43 15 -4 -4 -9 -37 -34 -23 -38 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -1 0 0 1 4 6 9 LAND (KM) 1066 1174 1290 1417 1535 1808 2078 2347 2258 1956 1638 1318 1026 809 725 794 970 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.1 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.6 119.0 120.6 122.1 125.3 128.5 131.6 134.7 137.9 141.3 144.9 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 15 16 15 16 17 18 18 17 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 15 14 9 15 1 2 7 7 6 4 4 2 3 21 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -30. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -11. -6. -1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. -1. -5. -13. -19. -20. -24. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. -23. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.3 116.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 694.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 19.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 7.2% 4.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##