* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 117 112 106 95 88 86 86 87 86 83 79 78 79 81 82 V (KT) LAND 115 118 117 112 106 95 88 86 86 87 86 83 79 78 79 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 118 114 110 101 92 89 89 91 93 94 92 90 88 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 16 18 16 10 1 2 4 0 6 4 4 2 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 3 1 0 2 -1 1 1 1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 57 62 58 84 100 92 119 124 99 28 335 314 269 274 290 292 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.0 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 147 146 134 136 132 135 137 132 132 135 132 135 136 139 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 58 61 64 65 65 66 61 55 51 54 59 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 53 60 73 88 97 83 87 88 98 101 88 80 63 46 26 200 MB DIV -20 -14 5 -12 -2 28 41 27 27 1 2 -29 -34 -28 -12 -40 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 1 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 3 6 12 8 LAND (KM) 1185 1309 1431 1546 1668 1956 2215 2399 2086 1766 1429 1100 833 680 690 871 1111 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 119.2 120.7 122.2 123.7 126.9 130.1 133.2 136.5 139.8 143.3 147.0 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 18 19 19 16 16 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 9 11 2 3 2 7 18 2 2 2 2 21 5 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -33. -36. -37. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -15. -10. -5. -1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -3. -9. -20. -27. -29. -29. -28. -29. -32. -36. -37. -36. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.1 117.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 730.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 5.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##