* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 102 98 90 87 88 89 89 88 86 85 85 85 86 86 V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 102 98 90 87 88 89 89 88 86 85 85 85 86 86 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 103 100 92 87 85 86 88 88 88 90 89 88 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 15 15 15 9 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 7 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 2 -1 1 4 2 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 61 70 84 102 86 90 133 101 250 360 310 315 290 320 280 276 274 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.2 27.8 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 147 148 144 131 134 133 134 132 134 135 134 135 134 137 139 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 61 62 65 65 67 64 62 55 52 53 60 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 18 19 19 19 18 17 16 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 59 66 80 88 95 92 80 86 88 99 96 82 67 65 39 37 200 MB DIV 1 13 -16 -11 11 39 36 40 1 35 18 4 -25 2 -18 5 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 4 10 9 2 LAND (KM) 1320 1457 1588 1707 1831 2093 2362 2220 1893 1574 1272 981 742 664 765 988 1152 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.9 122.5 124.0 125.5 128.7 131.8 135.0 138.4 141.8 145.2 148.9 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 16 15 16 17 17 17 19 19 17 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 9 13 13 1 2 8 7 2 4 3 2 9 7 8 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -8. -3. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -23. -22. -21. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 -0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 12.1% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##