* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 99 97 94 89 88 90 91 91 88 85 85 83 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 105 102 99 97 94 89 88 90 91 91 88 85 85 83 83 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 98 95 92 88 86 85 85 85 84 84 83 81 77 72 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 15 15 11 5 5 1 1 4 5 6 9 12 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 1 2 5 4 1 2 5 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 78 91 100 85 77 113 144 177 351 214 294 242 295 252 297 259 267 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 28.4 27.6 27.2 27.5 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 27.0 26.6 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 151 142 138 141 134 136 136 135 133 137 132 136 135 136 140 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 62 62 65 68 67 67 63 56 52 53 59 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 67 84 87 94 96 90 88 91 97 92 72 62 56 32 15 8 200 MB DIV 20 2 -4 11 40 38 51 32 8 25 -15 -24 -27 -25 -28 -5 -11 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 2 0 -7 0 -1 0 6 9 5 5 7 LAND (KM) 1477 1611 1753 1882 2009 2254 2386 2061 1728 1393 1076 831 705 757 880 1028 1201 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.7 124.4 125.9 127.3 130.3 133.4 136.7 140.3 143.9 147.5 151.2 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 14 14 15 15 17 18 18 18 19 17 15 15 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 16 8 3 5 4 7 14 3 2 5 2 20 5 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -10. -7. -2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -17. -15. -14. -14. -17. -20. -20. -22. -22. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.5 121.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.03 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 -1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 12.2% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##