* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 118 114 109 101 96 96 93 90 85 83 78 78 77 78 78 V (KT) LAND 120 120 118 114 109 101 96 96 93 90 85 83 78 78 77 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 116 110 105 98 93 92 90 88 86 84 80 77 75 71 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 10 7 5 1 2 6 6 10 8 10 11 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 2 4 1 0 1 4 4 1 5 2 4 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 94 106 88 90 95 123 131 333 355 297 301 292 308 286 281 263 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 143 137 138 136 135 134 134 133 136 133 136 135 137 138 143 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 62 63 66 65 69 64 61 56 55 56 63 64 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 17 18 16 17 17 19 17 18 16 15 13 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 65 85 88 92 104 101 86 89 92 100 97 88 68 59 33 20 19 200 MB DIV 35 21 28 48 38 30 34 1 38 20 -14 -12 -17 -19 -12 -13 24 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -6 -6 -2 3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 6 8 10 7 13 LAND (KM) 1612 1742 1878 2005 2125 2370 2218 1883 1552 1220 944 765 719 856 1050 1186 1359 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 124.2 125.8 127.3 128.8 131.8 135.1 138.6 142.1 145.9 149.9 153.7 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 18 17 17 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 9 3 3 3 9 8 3 3 4 2 14 5 15 15 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -4. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -11. -19. -24. -24. -27. -30. -35. -37. -42. -42. -43. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.2 122.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 646.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 5.1% 4.3% 2.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##