* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 32 36 47 60 70 74 73 68 66 61 54 47 39 32 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 32 36 47 60 70 74 73 68 66 61 54 47 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 46 50 51 48 43 37 30 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 7 13 14 15 11 13 9 5 9 11 15 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 1 -2 8 2 1 0 3 2 2 5 3 5 SHEAR DIR 327 360 15 30 42 23 352 360 39 56 92 142 180 210 225 213 217 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.0 28.8 26.0 23.7 21.8 20.9 20.3 19.9 19.5 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 165 164 168 171 172 166 155 126 101 80 69 61 58 58 59 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 83 81 81 78 74 72 66 66 62 60 56 56 49 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 9 12 15 16 17 16 16 14 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -7 -6 2 0 13 0 -1 7 41 50 32 18 7 4 -3 200 MB DIV 59 59 74 51 58 52 43 26 19 -3 5 -14 27 6 4 10 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -5 -13 -17 -12 -8 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 428 419 422 397 374 335 337 359 343 472 596 735 850 876 860 773 666 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.7 18.2 19.7 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.2 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.9 103.7 104.4 105.1 106.5 108.0 110.0 112.8 116.1 119.3 121.8 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 10 11 14 16 17 15 11 6 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 59 59 49 47 58 51 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 13. 16. 16. 14. 14. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 16. 27. 40. 50. 54. 53. 48. 46. 41. 34. 27. 19. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 102.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 59.7% 39.7% 24.7% 17.7% 41.5% 53.0% 29.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 28.0% 16.4% 6.2% 1.6% 22.3% 23.9% 7.1% Consensus: 5.5% 29.3% 18.7% 10.3% 6.4% 21.3% 25.7% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##