* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 48 57 60 60 54 47 41 37 34 31 27 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 48 57 60 60 54 47 41 37 34 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 32 34 34 32 28 24 21 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 12 14 12 20 12 8 13 12 7 5 3 5 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 2 1 2 4 10 -5 -1 -5 -1 0 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 5 14 23 33 32 359 3 350 33 63 85 100 160 187 164 230 209 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.0 28.6 25.7 24.1 22.2 21.4 20.9 20.5 19.9 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 164 167 168 172 167 153 122 104 83 73 68 63 58 59 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 82 80 80 81 78 74 70 68 65 58 58 52 47 41 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 8 8 8 12 13 17 18 19 18 17 14 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -39 -23 -14 -19 -3 -1 2 0 3 23 38 32 20 5 16 19 200 MB DIV 67 71 60 76 83 45 61 16 63 0 -6 5 -15 6 -2 7 -11 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -6 0 -13 -13 -19 -9 -6 -3 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 529 540 522 497 454 370 369 360 369 458 555 656 700 726 724 696 651 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 16.5 18.1 19.7 21.2 23.0 24.1 25.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.7 106.8 108.3 110.3 113.1 116.2 118.8 120.8 121.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 16 16 12 8 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 48 48 42 41 48 50 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 32. 33. 32. 30. 28. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 15. 17. 20. 17. 15. 11. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 28. 37. 40. 40. 34. 27. 21. 17. 14. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 102.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.2% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 4.3% 0.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##