* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 29 37 48 57 60 57 50 45 40 36 32 31 31 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 29 37 48 57 60 57 50 45 40 36 32 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 16 17 20 21 11 14 14 12 12 14 24 29 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 2 1 0 4 8 4 -4 -1 -2 -2 2 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 24 35 33 33 17 357 360 30 53 91 126 170 187 194 199 214 228 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.4 29.6 25.8 23.4 21.0 20.2 19.5 19.0 18.1 17.3 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 165 168 168 171 164 124 98 72 62 59 59 60 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 82 81 76 72 68 65 59 55 51 48 42 41 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 10 13 15 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -25 -13 -18 -9 4 -9 18 -6 19 26 29 23 22 29 23 39 200 MB DIV 70 63 71 84 63 59 41 39 31 -4 3 2 0 20 3 14 23 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -5 0 -5 -13 -22 -16 -10 -4 0 -1 -7 -14 -21 -15 LAND (KM) 514 506 467 424 385 306 360 262 338 439 578 687 704 603 466 287 113 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.8 17.5 19.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 26.3 27.6 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.0 104.6 105.3 105.9 107.1 108.9 111.5 114.8 118.1 120.6 122.3 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 13 17 19 16 11 7 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 46 41 47 47 43 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 11. 19. 26. 28. 29. 27. 25. 24. 26. 31. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 28. 37. 40. 37. 30. 25. 20. 16. 12. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 7.4% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 2.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##