* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 90 88 86 86 87 87 86 83 80 80 80 78 79 79 78 V (KT) LAND 100 94 90 88 86 86 87 87 86 83 80 80 80 78 79 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 90 86 84 83 82 81 80 79 79 79 77 74 70 63 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 7 5 4 4 2 4 6 12 10 14 11 18 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 81 99 135 126 114 143 342 255 300 284 304 281 297 291 282 258 278 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.6 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 133 132 133 136 138 133 135 136 134 137 138 143 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 65 63 64 64 61 54 49 46 51 57 59 56 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 15 15 15 16 14 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 90 105 119 106 94 95 91 104 109 99 99 86 74 46 33 2 -25 200 MB DIV 52 52 54 43 41 31 21 27 -18 -8 -28 -26 -10 12 -2 0 -24 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -5 0 0 -4 -6 -1 0 6 8 11 10 13 15 10 LAND (KM) 2029 2150 2277 2413 2307 1987 1654 1333 1024 764 687 834 1065 1179 1343 1601 1903 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.3 130.8 132.5 134.1 137.4 140.9 144.5 148.3 152.4 156.6 160.4 163.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 19 17 16 16 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 3 2 4 4 8 6 2 3 9 5 11 18 42 52 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -14. -17. -20. -20. -20. -22. -21. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##