* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 43 51 62 65 65 59 53 48 46 43 39 35 29 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 43 51 62 65 65 59 53 48 46 43 39 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 50 48 44 39 35 31 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 12 9 9 19 12 8 7 11 4 4 2 2 6 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 1 0 3 2 5 0 0 -2 0 3 8 6 11 7 SHEAR DIR 34 39 36 24 351 15 28 55 58 111 127 102 168 123 305 248 236 SST (C) 30.0 30.5 31.2 30.6 30.3 30.1 29.5 26.9 24.9 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.6 21.2 20.9 20.5 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 172 172 169 167 161 134 113 95 88 80 74 69 67 64 60 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 76 74 70 66 64 62 58 59 55 50 44 42 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 10 12 11 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 2 0 6 14 10 12 39 29 31 23 22 16 16 -6 -9 200 MB DIV 57 71 70 34 28 34 38 31 2 -2 1 -17 9 -5 17 -4 8 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 -25 -28 -25 -18 -10 -2 0 0 0 -4 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 308 254 231 226 266 351 301 430 595 693 737 763 776 770 740 665 561 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 9 6 4 3 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 74 50 42 22 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 14. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 18. 26. 37. 40. 40. 34. 28. 23. 21. 18. 14. 10. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 33.9% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 42.1% 21.8% 11.7% 5.8% 20.4% 14.8% 5.4% Bayesian: 6.1% 37.4% 19.9% 7.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% Consensus: 5.9% 37.8% 20.8% 6.4% 2.7% 15.2% 11.2% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 5.0% 18.0% 13.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##