* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 52 61 66 65 59 51 43 37 33 26 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 52 61 66 65 59 51 43 37 33 26 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 35 39 44 48 55 58 54 48 42 36 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 13 14 15 15 14 16 11 9 9 10 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -1 0 5 4 0 -5 -2 0 0 6 6 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 12 348 343 355 27 52 64 92 119 124 143 161 161 191 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 31.1 30.7 30.3 30.2 29.8 27.8 24.8 23.3 22.3 21.8 21.2 20.7 20.2 19.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 172 169 168 165 144 113 95 83 77 70 66 62 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 73 72 67 61 58 56 56 56 54 51 49 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 6 11 12 0 19 38 35 31 16 21 16 26 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 81 29 1 4 21 28 4 -13 2 0 4 27 14 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -7 -18 -22 -16 -16 -4 -1 -1 -5 -10 -18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 238 221 192 230 286 225 323 483 603 691 746 731 671 539 361 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 16 14 10 7 4 4 5 8 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 68 51 36 36 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 11. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 31. 36. 35. 29. 21. 13. 7. 3. -4. -9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 104.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 39.9% 27.0% 18.6% 0.0% 23.5% 17.5% 8.9% Logistic: 6.9% 22.2% 9.9% 5.0% 2.7% 8.2% 3.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 23.9% 13.0% 8.1% 1.2% 10.9% 7.1% 3.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 26.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 20.0% 9.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##