* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 82 80 79 78 80 80 80 78 78 79 80 79 78 76 75 V (KT) LAND 90 86 82 80 79 78 80 80 80 78 78 79 80 79 78 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 77 75 73 75 79 81 82 83 84 84 81 74 62 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 10 7 4 1 4 5 6 8 11 7 14 25 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 3 2 5 1 1 1 0 0 1 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 113 142 143 134 148 65 81 278 288 299 292 306 262 259 236 242 238 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 135 133 136 138 133 135 135 136 138 138 143 148 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 61 60 61 57 51 47 47 50 49 50 50 52 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 18 16 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 117 116 106 97 96 90 96 97 83 89 83 77 65 48 33 -3 -16 200 MB DIV 74 65 50 48 33 14 6 -16 -5 -25 -15 -14 -6 24 18 -3 17 700-850 TADV -9 -2 0 1 -3 -8 -2 0 0 6 9 12 9 8 14 15 14 LAND (KM) 2284 2413 2318 2151 1987 1669 1342 1039 814 714 844 1056 1201 1415 1658 1903 2153 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.8 132.4 134.0 135.7 137.4 140.8 144.4 148.2 152.0 156.0 160.1 164.0 167.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 19 17 16 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 4 8 4 9 6 2 5 4 7 13 16 49 58 42 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.5 130.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 14.0% 11.6% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.4% 4.3% 3.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##