* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972023 08/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 51 46 40 34 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 51 46 40 34 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 40 36 33 29 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 12 13 14 14 15 13 7 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 8 2 4 -5 -2 -3 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 360 351 4 18 35 55 69 106 102 114 150 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 30.6 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.3 25.6 24.1 22.7 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 169 171 168 160 121 105 89 79 74 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 77 75 72 69 62 60 59 52 52 50 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 9 11 13 17 27 48 39 40 27 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 33 -4 11 42 32 31 -10 -28 -11 -14 11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -10 -22 -25 -15 -18 -8 -3 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 268 254 288 338 327 320 443 569 696 768 766 738 693 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 14 13 9 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 73 59 44 46 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 7. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 16. 10. 4. -1. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 105.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 19.0% 16.4% 13.8% 0.0% 18.6% 13.9% 6.9% Logistic: 0.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.1% 5.9% 4.7% 0.0% 6.5% 4.7% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##