* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062023 08/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 49 49 43 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 49 49 43 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 31 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 12 12 13 12 14 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 5 7 4 2 -5 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 342 357 20 22 54 41 74 81 95 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.8 27.7 25.0 23.1 22.4 21.6 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 169 166 164 143 115 94 85 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 69 69 63 62 58 55 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 19 16 0 12 27 26 34 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 -14 -2 11 4 37 17 -34 -18 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 -6 -18 -19 -16 -10 -16 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 269 333 316 253 380 522 625 784 814 741 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 14 15 14 13 8 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 42 41 19 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. 10. 11. 9. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 19. 19. 13. 6. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 106.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 SIX 08/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 0.0% 16.6% 12.9% 6.3% Logistic: 10.3% 29.4% 10.0% 4.3% 1.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 17.8% 8.4% 5.5% 0.5% 6.6% 4.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 SIX 08/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##