* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 117 114 108 101 92 82 76 72 68 66 66 65 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 115 118 117 114 108 101 92 82 76 72 68 66 66 65 63 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 115 117 114 107 102 94 87 82 78 75 72 71 70 67 59 50 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 2 4 3 5 7 8 9 13 11 15 21 29 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 7 3 3 7 6 4 3 0 0 -3 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 134 161 194 297 323 274 287 281 290 286 287 279 277 256 241 248 251 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 134 136 137 138 138 134 132 135 139 140 145 152 157 157 150 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 60 56 50 43 43 45 46 49 48 47 50 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 17 18 17 15 15 14 12 11 11 9 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 103 97 98 88 92 97 103 97 97 91 87 72 55 31 1 -14 -26 200 MB DIV 52 49 36 27 33 37 8 -4 -15 -18 -18 -12 -12 8 -6 15 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -9 -8 1 -1 0 6 9 11 7 7 9 5 8 1 LAND (KM) 2321 2160 2002 1821 1645 1322 1042 809 749 884 1104 1268 1494 1783 2087 2374 2623 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.7 137.3 139.2 141.0 144.7 148.4 152.3 156.2 160.3 164.4 168.1 171.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 19 17 17 17 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 4 10 9 5 5 4 2 7 17 19 49 51 45 36 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. -30. -33. -33. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -23. -33. -39. -43. -47. -49. -49. -50. -52. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.3 134.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 635.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 4.7% 6.3% 3.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/05/23 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 30 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##