* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062023 08/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 56 57 52 44 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 56 57 52 44 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 45 46 42 37 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 11 13 12 11 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 4 2 3 -2 -2 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 357 1 24 43 65 62 94 101 125 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.2 25.1 23.5 22.2 21.7 21.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 168 165 158 116 98 83 76 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 65 61 58 51 49 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 18 4 9 15 47 41 52 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 15 16 1 29 34 -9 -23 -14 -9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -5 -18 -23 -19 -17 -19 -6 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 292 287 220 255 377 502 627 745 770 738 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.9 24.2 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.9 112.2 115.2 118.2 120.4 122.0 122.4 122.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 13 9 5 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 36 20 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 17. 9. -0. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.7 107.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 SIX 08/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 22.2% 17.5% 14.5% 9.6% 18.3% 13.8% 6.1% Logistic: 7.3% 17.2% 6.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 14.5% 8.0% 5.6% 3.5% 6.4% 4.6% 2.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 27.0% 18.0% 7.0% 4.0% 17.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 SIX 08/05/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##