* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 130 128 126 121 113 102 94 89 85 81 81 80 75 73 71 70 V (KT) LAND 125 130 128 126 121 113 102 94 89 85 81 81 80 75 73 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 121 114 109 101 96 94 89 86 86 87 87 80 69 56 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 1 3 2 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 22 29 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 5 3 5 8 3 4 2 2 0 4 6 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 162 182 282 360 43 310 340 287 302 293 307 293 254 250 246 256 281 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.9 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 135 137 135 132 136 131 135 137 140 142 149 153 156 155 154 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 63 60 58 52 46 43 43 44 45 46 46 45 49 53 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 19 19 17 17 17 16 15 15 14 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 97 101 91 100 98 107 102 110 94 91 83 72 54 22 -2 -24 -30 200 MB DIV 68 55 49 46 39 27 -11 -21 6 -14 -5 5 9 10 -9 0 61 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -8 -8 -5 -3 -2 0 7 7 9 8 10 14 11 0 6 LAND (KM) 2163 1992 1824 1650 1481 1179 926 741 795 994 1177 1385 1643 1894 2149 2433 2768 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.6 137.4 139.1 141.0 142.8 146.4 150.2 154.2 158.2 162.0 165.9 169.7 173.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 9 9 2 3 4 1 14 6 26 39 44 55 37 30 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -43. -43. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 4. -0. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 3. 1. -4. -12. -23. -31. -36. -40. -44. -44. -45. -50. -52. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.2 135.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 732.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 3.1% 5.8% 3.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 1.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 84 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##