* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP062023 08/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 61 61 57 47 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 61 61 57 47 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 60 61 58 49 40 32 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 14 12 15 12 10 7 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 0 4 1 -3 -3 0 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 357 11 40 57 61 84 106 131 131 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.3 27.1 23.9 22.6 21.1 20.8 20.4 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 166 160 137 103 88 70 66 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 62 62 59 52 50 46 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 3 7 14 31 42 51 35 40 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 10 -8 15 32 -11 -34 -9 -3 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -22 -23 -20 -17 -17 -12 -3 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 286 287 204 238 276 414 523 603 635 617 556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.7 24.0 25.1 25.9 26.3 27.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.5 110.7 112.1 113.5 116.6 119.3 120.7 121.2 121.2 121.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 10 5 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 20 14 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 16. 12. 2. -9. -19. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.6 108.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 23.6% 19.4% 16.7% 10.8% 19.1% 13.6% 4.5% Logistic: 14.5% 15.0% 7.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 13.7% 8.8% 6.4% 3.9% 6.5% 4.5% 1.5% DTOPS: 11.0% 18.0% 14.0% 11.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##