* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP062023 08/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 67 66 61 54 43 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 67 66 61 54 43 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 69 68 58 47 37 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 13 15 12 13 5 6 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 2 3 -1 -3 -2 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 17 35 54 61 71 91 107 135 163 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.5 27.3 24.9 23.2 21.6 20.8 20.5 20.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 162 139 114 95 77 67 63 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 60 57 54 48 49 46 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 14 13 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 3 0 12 16 42 40 44 31 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -17 7 35 10 -17 -26 4 -12 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -21 -22 -18 -21 -19 -7 -1 -2 -2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 198 208 273 335 465 567 629 629 539 395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.3 24.5 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.5 111.8 113.4 115.0 118.0 120.1 121.1 121.3 120.7 119.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 15 13 8 4 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 15 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -6. -13. -20. -25. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 11. 6. -1. -12. -23. -31. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 109.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 23.2% 19.8% 17.4% 11.1% 18.9% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 8.6% 7.1% 5.9% 3.8% 6.3% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 13.0% 15.0% 14.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##