* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 113 111 108 102 97 93 91 87 87 84 79 77 77 75 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 113 111 108 102 97 93 91 87 87 84 79 77 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 110 106 104 101 98 93 91 92 92 90 83 71 60 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 2 0 2 4 5 7 6 10 13 21 27 28 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 11 7 4 0 2 0 4 7 3 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 20 48 321 316 317 274 340 299 275 274 259 248 242 256 276 260 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 136 138 137 140 135 136 138 142 143 148 149 154 153 150 151 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 52 44 44 42 44 44 44 46 48 50 55 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 21 20 20 18 17 16 17 16 15 13 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 91 106 97 99 103 98 110 91 84 89 72 62 35 4 -16 -29 -31 200 MB DIV 49 29 33 29 0 -24 -12 -14 -9 -22 0 16 -4 -12 -4 30 25 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -7 -6 0 -3 8 11 12 7 9 9 10 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1814 1647 1484 1317 1162 911 746 763 940 1136 1355 1595 1820 2089 2389 2665 2798 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.3 14.0 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.2 141.0 142.7 144.7 146.6 150.3 154.0 157.9 161.6 165.5 169.4 172.9 176.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 18 19 19 18 20 18 17 15 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 3 6 6 6 3 13 6 24 33 42 44 31 28 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -33. -33. -36. -41. -43. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.0 139.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 792.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##