* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP062023 08/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 64 61 51 41 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 64 61 51 41 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 65 60 50 39 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 17 15 11 9 7 7 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 2 0 -3 -3 0 1 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 34 52 66 65 68 87 111 152 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 26.5 24.2 23.9 22.3 21.1 20.6 20.4 19.8 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 131 107 103 85 71 64 62 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.6 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 59 58 53 52 47 44 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 19 18 26 37 46 27 38 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 7 32 0 -31 -12 -3 -1 18 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -22 -23 -17 -26 -18 -17 -2 0 -2 -6 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 249 302 367 444 567 671 653 639 512 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.8 25.6 26.7 27.3 28.3 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 112.3 113.8 115.3 116.8 119.6 121.3 121.5 121.6 120.7 119.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 11 6 4 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -21. -29. -35. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 1. -9. -19. -30. -41. -48. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.4 110.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.32 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 18.1% 16.0% 13.9% 9.3% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.1% 5.4% 4.6% 3.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 EUGENE 08/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##