* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP052023 08/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 113 110 107 103 97 93 90 87 80 79 76 73 72 73 71 V (KT) LAND 120 116 113 110 107 103 97 93 90 87 80 79 76 73 72 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 120 114 109 104 100 95 90 88 89 89 89 85 76 64 53 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 2 1 1 4 3 5 6 12 16 23 35 29 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 5 11 4 2 1 0 -1 7 7 1 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 341 4 270 273 283 332 287 296 284 238 260 238 228 236 274 284 296 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.1 26.9 27.3 27.1 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 138 136 140 138 134 137 142 141 144 150 153 152 149 152 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 52 46 42 40 43 44 45 43 45 47 49 55 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 17 16 15 15 15 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 102 101 106 107 108 97 102 91 86 78 56 41 12 -12 -28 -44 -53 200 MB DIV 49 43 33 9 -10 0 5 -6 -22 -5 -41 16 -13 -17 27 32 7 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -5 -1 -3 1 7 11 6 6 10 8 10 3 5 2 LAND (KM) 1626 1452 1285 1135 1004 809 727 852 1062 1205 1446 1714 1972 2264 2560 2823 2669 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.2 143.0 144.9 146.8 148.7 152.3 156.2 159.9 163.6 167.3 171.1 174.6 177.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 19 18 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 6 5 5 6 3 10 14 17 47 50 35 27 28 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -40. -41. -44. -47. -48. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.9 141.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 876.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##